Development and energy

I recently read the book “Olja” (ISBN 91-7232-043-5) by Gunnar Lindstedt. Unfortunately it is only available in Swedish.

The book is about what is known as Peak Oil, i.e. the point in time when we have extracted 50% of the world’s oil supply. According to the experts interviewed in the book that point is here or very near. Actually, the date varies from “just passed it” to “within 10 years”. I’d say that is rather irrelevant. I firmly believe that the amount of oil is finite (if for nothing else the volume of the planet is finite) and it seems reasonable to believe the experts that the half-way point is near. Thus the time for action is close.

In the book mr Lindstedt not only explains details about oil extraction ond consumption, he also parallells this with backdrops from a “middle earth” era. His youth and his grand parents youth. So much has changed in the last 100 years it’s almost unbelievable, and not only in terms og technology.

Mr Lindstedt suggests that the curve of the western world’s improved efficiency in production is virtually identical to the curve of oil import. That idea took me by surprise, and after pondering it it does make sense.

Way back when a man and his horse would till a field in a day or two (or whatever). Now, a man and his tractor does it significantly faster, and things look more efficient on the surface. However, that doesn’t take into account the hidden addition of a few hundred litres of diesel.

So, thinking about it, have we made significant improvements in terms of process, or are all our increases in efficientcy by shortening the time and adding energy? Somewhere in the back of my mind a page from a physics book lurks, mumbling something about efficiency as work x time. As long as we only count human power as “work” and forget about the work fossil fuel does we look a lot more efficient, but that seems like a small white lie…

Scanning the net I found a link to http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html with the oil production of various countries  and summaries.

It seems the world is indeed reducing its production and it s worth noting that the current economic slump/crisis/depression is not in these numbers, as they only include up to 2007.

Interesting read and lots of food for thought. For further reading, google for peak oil.

–Jesper Hogstrom